The economy grew 1.9% in the 2nd quarter

news release no 87

According to the flash estimates of Statistics Estonia, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Estonia increased 1.9% in the 2nd quarter of 2015 compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

In the 2nd quarter of 2015, the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter and by 1.9% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2014.

According to the preliminary calculations, the greatest contributor to the real growth of the GDP was the rise in value added in real estate activities, manufacturing, and agriculture, forestry and fishing. At current prices, there was a decrease in value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing. However, eliminating price effects gives a significantly different outcome mainly due to the fallen prices of energy and fuels, which are inputs of production.

According to the preliminary calculations, the GDP growth was inhibited the most by a decrease in value added in transport. In addition, trade influenced the Estonian economy negatively despite the increase in the value added in retail trade.

In the 2nd quarter, external demand was weak. The real decrease of the export of goods of the total economy was 2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Although the export of electronic products and wood and products thereof increased, the export of other machinery, food and beverages decreased substantially. Additionally, the real import of goods of the total economy decreased 4% compared with the 2nd quarter of 2014.

GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was positively influenced by net taxes on products. At current prices, there were increased receipts of value added tax. At the same time, payments of subsidies decreased.

The flash estimate of economic growth is calculated only by production approach using VAT return information from the Estonian Tax and Customs Board and data from various statistical actions of Statistics Estonia which have been obtained by the time of preparing the estimate. Therefore, the flash estimate may differ from the revised estimates of the GDP, which are based on the respective quarterly data and calculated by expenditure, production and income approach.

The revised estimates for the 2nd quarter of 2015 will be published by Statistics Estonia on 8 September. In addition, data for 2011–2014 and the 1st quarter of 2015 will be updated according to the regular revision based on the supply and use tables and annual reports of enterprises. Also, GDP figures from the years 2000–2010 are improved due to the changes in the government finance statistics. On the same date, Statistics Estonia will publish the revised GDP figures for 1st quarter 1995 – 4th quarter 1999 according to the new European System of accounts (ESA 2010).

For further information:

Annika Laarmaa
Leading Statistician-Methodologist
Economic and Environmental Statistics Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel. +372 625 9353