Confidence remains the highest in the retail trade sector and the lowest in construction
On 25 September, Statistics Estonia published the results of the business and consumer surveys for September. Compared with the previous month, confidence has improved slightly among retail trade and construction enterprises and has fallen a little in the services and industry sectors. Consumer confidence has remained at the same level as in August.
In September, the confidence indicator was still the highest in retail trade (+21.1, up from +15.7 in August). Compared with August, there was a significant deterioration in enterprises’ assessment of their sales in the last three months, although enterprises were more optimistic about expected sales in the next three months. There was also a slight improvement in assessments of the volume of stock.
In the services sector, the confidence indicator was +1.2 in September (+7.4 in August), and enterprises had a more negative view of expected demand in the next three months. Confidence also decreased slightly among industrial enterprises (+1.4 in September, +3.6 in August). Compared with the previous month, industrial enterprises were more pessimistic about current demand, stocks of finished products as well as expected production levels in the next three months.
The confidence indicator for the construction sector improved a little (-3.8 in September, -8.6 in August) but remains lower than in the other business sectors. Similarly to previous months, construction enterprises cited insufficient demand as the main factor limiting activity.
In the case of three confidence indicators, a closer look at the data reveals that responses to a specific question have changed significantly compared with August. In the construction sector, enterprises responded more positively to the question about expected changes in employment over the next three months (-4.3 in August, +5.8 in September). In the trade sector, enterprises were much more positive about expected sales over the next three months (+5 in August, +36.4 in September). As for service enterprises, they had considerably more negative views of future demand (+9.9 in August, ‑6.7 in September). In all of these cases, the assessments were strongly influenced by responses from enterprises with a large number of employees.
The participants in the business and consumer surveys, including enterprises, are selected using random sampling, and the results are weighted to ensure an accurate representation of overall sentiment. The weights depend on the number of employees in an enterprise; therefore, the responses given by larger enterprises have a bigger impact on the outcome. However, being assigned a bigger weight does not mean that the survey results are shaped only by large enterprises. In order to get the most accurate overview of the economic situation in Estonia, the business surveys include both larger and smaller enterprises, and each enterprise’s response matters.
The consumer confidence indicator has been the most stable: it was -23.6 in August and -23.5 in September. Since May, there has been a steady improvement in consumers’ assessment of the household’s financial situation and the general economic situation, but consumers were slightly more pessimistic in September about the household’s financial position over the next 12 months. Compared with August, there was a small decline in consumers’ intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months.
Economic confidence indicators
| Consumer confidence ndicator | Construction confidence indicator | Industrial confidence indicator | Retail trade confidence indicator | Services confidence indicator | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | -30.8 | -17.1 | -0.9 | 14.0 | -0.1 |
| June 2026 | -29.0 | -12.0 | -3.8 | 20.5 | 3.1 |
| July 2026 | -26.1 | -14.6 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 6.5 |
| August 2026 | -23.6 | -8.6 | 3.6 | 15.7 | 7.4 |
| September 2026 | -23.5 | -3.8 | 1.4 | 21.1 | 1.2 |
The business and consumer surveys reflect economic confidence in four business sectors and among consumers. A confidence indicator is calculated for each sector based on the survey responses. These indicators are used for economic forecasting and international comparisons, among other things.
The survey data are available to analysts, policymakers, the media and all other users in the statistical database. On our website, there are more detailed descriptions of the methodology of the consumer survey and the business surveys.
The next survey round begins on 1 October. More information about the surveys is available on our website:
The business and consumer surveys are co-financed under the Joint Harmonised European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, pursuant to the Framework Partnership Agreement BCS-2025-FPA and Specific Grant Agreement BCS-2025-SGA.
When using Statistics Estonia’s data and graphs, please indicate the source.
For further information:
Annaliisa Köss
Media Relations Partner
Marketing and Dissemination Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel +372 5696 6484
press [at] stat.ee (press[at]stat[dot]ee)
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