GDP flash estimate: economy grew by 0.5% in Q2

“Compared with the first quarter of 2025, the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP was up by 0.5%,” stated Robert Müürsepp, team lead of national accounts at Statistics Estonia. 

According to Müürsepp, it is too early to say how the consumer price index adjustment will affect GDP calculations. “It is highly unlikely that it will have a significant impact,” he said.

What is a flash estimate of GDP?

Although the official GDP figure will be released on 29 August, the information currently available can be used to assess the overall economic situation. This includes trade indicators, transport and manufacturing statistics, tax declarations, energy production indicators, and price data, which are used to create several models of the Estonian economy. This process is called econometric modelling, which attempts to link the seasonality and trends of the economy with indicators that could in turn describe the state of the economy.

However, the flash estimate assumes that economic trends and structures will remain stable. Also, the initial data used in the models might not cover certain major transactions that could have a big impact on the overall indicators due to the small size of Estonia's economy.

As the GDP flash estimate is prepared using statistical models, it is not methodologically comparable to the official GDP, which takes into account all economic transactions.

On 15 August, Statistics Estonia will also publish the results of the summer revision of GDP for 2021–2024.

See the GDP flash estimate in the statistical database. Learn more about national accounts.

When using Statistics Estonia’s data and graphs, please indicate the source.
 

For further information:

Susann Kivi
Communications Partner
Marketing and Dissemination Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel +372 5621 5826

press [at] stat.ee (press[at]stat[dot]ee)