Are there more or less than a million Estonians in the world?

The number of Estonians in Estonia

The number of Estonians, i.e. people of Estonian ethnicity, has been monitored in the censuses since 1881, and since 1990 it has been monitored annually. Estonians were the most numerous at the time of the 1934 census. Back then, Estonia had a total population of 1.1 million, of whom the majority, 992,520 people, were ethnic Estonians. In other words, at the census moment, the country was only 7,480 Estonians away from a million. Due to the population growth rate at the time, the mythical one million mark was reached in 1939, but the population began to decline rapidly thereafter. It is not shown on the graph, but the smallest number of ethnic Estonians lived in Estonia in 1945 – probably just over 800,000. This was due to the war losses, the severing of Setomaa from Estonia, and the mass exodus to the West, followed by repression and deportation.

The number of Estonians in Estonia

The number of Estonians, i.e. people of Estonian ethnicity, has been monitored in the censuses since 1881, and since 1990 it has been monitored annually. Estonians were the most numerous at the time of the 1934 census. Back then, Estonia had a total population of 1.1 million, of whom the majority, 992,520 people, were ethnic Estonians. In other words, at the census moment, the country was only 7,480 Estonians away from a million. Due to the population growth rate at the time, the mythical one million mark was reached in 1939, but the population began to decline rapidly thereafter. It is not shown on the graph, but the smallest number of ethnic Estonians lived in Estonia in 1945 – probably just over 800,000. This was due to the war losses, the severing of Setomaa from Estonia, and the mass exodus to the West, followed by repression and deportation.

From 1945, the number of Estonians began to grow again. Returning to Estonia were people who had fled to Russia, the mobilised, and those who had been in prisoner of war camps, as well as a large number of people with Estonian roots who had been living in the Russian Federation until then but who could not or did not wish to relocate to Estonia and become citizens in 1920. The natural increase was also positive. Although life expectancy practically did not increase, people were marrying and having children earlier and earlier, which meant that the total fertility rate was above the replacement level fertility for most years and the number of Estonians gradually increased. A small baby boom at the time of the Singing Revolution also helped, and by 1991 the number of Estonians had reached over 966,000, only 3% below the previous maximum.

Then, however, began a decline in the number of Estonians that lasted for several decades. There were two important reasons for this. Firstly, the borders opened and many bright young people went west to seek their fortune, further their education, and explore the world. Secondly, women started to have children later in life. Young women wanted to complete their education, take their first steps on the career ladder, and also explore the world before becoming mothers. This meant that babies of several vintages were not born.

The situation changed when Estonia's economy and living conditions improved to such an extent that Estonia again became a country of immigration. Although the natural increase did not turn positive, life expectancy increased significantly and instead of out-migration, in-migration started to gain momentum. Thus, the number of ethnic Estonians in Estonia reached nearly 920,000 according to the 2021 census. However, this is more than 80,000 fewer than the number of Estonians in Estonia on the eve of the Second World War, and nearly 45,000 fewer than at the time of regaining independence. But a large number of Estonians are scattered around the world – more so than in earlier times.

Estonians away from home

The table below shows data from Wikipedia. Most of the information has been taken from the article Estonians and its references, with some of the data coming from Wikipedia articles on the respective countries. An estimate of the number of Estonians living in African countries is based on the expert opinion of Kadri Humal Ayali.

Assuming that the figures given are also valid for the current year, and ignoring the fact that Estonians are defined differently in different countries, the total number of ethnic Estonians living in the 20 countries and on the one continent listed in the table is 185,410.

Alternative estimates of the number of Estonians

Another important source of information is the survey carried out by the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (available only in Estonian). in autumn 2020, which was based on the data of the Police and Border Guard Board (PBGB) on Estonians living abroad (see Table 2). The data published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not show the number of Estonians by country, but it does show the number of respondents and the response rate of the Estonian population in each country*. The numbers of Estonians calculated based on this are seen in the table below.

The first three columns of the table are copied from the survey report, with the data for two countries – Finland and Russia – omitted because there were so few respondents that the response rate was 0%. Therefore, the data from these countries could not be used to estimate the number of Estonians. The last column of the table shows the number of Estonians in each country, calculated back from the number of respondents and the response rate.

A comparison of the data in the two tables shows that for the countries appearing in both tables, the differences are very large: the figures in Table 1 are, on average, more than three times higher than those in Table 2.

The figures differ most for the US, Sweden, Canada, Ukraine, and Latvia. These are countries where Estonians have already lived for a very long time and have not registered their residence with the Police and Border Guard Board, as later migrants have done (if they have, because statistics show that there is also a relatively high level of unregistered emigration in Estonia). There are probably a few inaccuracies and overestimates in the data presented in Table 1, which are, to a large extent, based on statements – especially in the case of the USA and Canada, where people who have claimed to have Estonian ancestors are also counted as Estonians.

Total number of Estonians in the world and its change

For further analysis, we include from Table 1 those countries for which data are available – here we find 185,410 Estonians. For the remaining countries, we draw the data from Table 2, assuming that all countries where Estonians live are thus covered. The total number of Estonians living in the added countries is 6,428. Adding the two figures we see that the estimated number of Estonians outside Estonia is 191,838.

Taking into account that there were 919,693 ethnic Estonians living in Estonia at the beginning of 2022, the total number of Estonians in the world is 1,111,531. These figures, in turn, show that 83% of Estonians live in Estonia and nearly 17% reside abroad. As these are estimates and various possible interpretations in the case of many countries, it is quite clear that the figures given are also approximate, but the general estimate – the total number of Estonians is 1.1 million and there are more than 900,000 Estonians living in Estonia –, is correct. Is this a record number of Estonians?

The compilers of the Estonian Human Development Report 2016/2017 took a closer look at the number and location of Estonians in the world. Their work showed that the diaspora (i.e. the population dispersed abroad) was larger than today's estimate on two occasions – in 1917 and 1945. The latest year covered in this publication was 2011, in which the authors estimate that 14% of all Estonians lived outside Estonia and 86% in Estonia. According to this calculation, the total number of Estonians in the world was 1.05 million. However, the number of Estonians has probably not risen that much over the past decade, as natural increase has remained negative and only longer life expectancy has increased the population.

The change in the estimation of the total number of Estonians is largely due to the estimate of the number of Estonians living abroad – how many of them can be found and which of them consider themselves Estonians. However, the number of ethnic Estonians seems to have peaked just before the Second World War, when there were almost exactly one million Estonians living in Estonia, nearly 130,000 in Russia, and another 20,000 in total in the US, South America and elsewhere. Thus, the estimated number of Estonians in the world at that time was 1,150,000, which is nearly 40,000 people (3.5%) more than today's estimate.

* Response rates are calculated in relation to the number of Estonian citizens registered as permanent residents abroad (PBGB data, January 2020).

Main sources used:

1. Estonian Human Development Report 2016/2017. Available at https://www.2017.inimareng.ee/en/open-to-the-world/estonians-in-the-world/

2. Estonians. Wikipedia. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonians

3. Foreign Ministry survey by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Estonians living abroad are keen to contribute to Estonia’s development. Available at https://moscow.mfa.ee/foreign-ministry-survey-estonians-living-abroad-are-keen-to-contribute-to-estonias-development/

4. Statistical database of Statistics Estonia. Available at https://andmed.stat.ee/en/stat