GDP flash estimate: economy grew by 0.9% in Q3
According to Statistics Estonia's preliminary estimate, Estonia's economy grew slightly in the third quarter of 2025. Compared with the third quarter of 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.9%.
Robert Müürsepp, team lead of national accounts at Statistics Estonia, noted that initial signs indicate a slight improvement in the economy compared with both a year ago and the previous quarter. “The seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP was up by 0.2% from the second quarter of 2025,” Müürsepp added.
What is a flash estimate of GDP?
The official data on GDP for the third quarter will be published on 1 December, but based on the information already available, it is possible to assess the overall economic trend. This is done using, for example, trade indicators, transport and manufacturing statistics, tax declarations, energy production indicators, and price data, on the basis of which several models of the Estonian economy are created. This process is called econometric modelling, which attempts to link the seasonality and trends of the economy with indicators that could in turn describe the state of the economy.
The flash estimate, however, assumes that economic trends and structures will remain stable. Also, the initial data used in the models might not cover certain major transactions that could have a big impact on the overall indicators due to the small size of Estonia's economy.
As the GDP flash estimate is prepared using statistical models, it is not methodologically comparable to the official GDP, which takes into account all economic transactions.
See the GDP flash estimate in the statistical database. Learn more about national accounts.
When using Statistics Estonia’s data and graphs, please indicate the source.
For further information:
Susann Kivi
Media Relations Manager
Marketing and Dissemination Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel +372 5696 6484
press [at] stat.ee (press[at]stat[dot]ee)