Population projection

What will happen to the population in a few decades' time if the current economic and political developments and trends in birth rates, mortality and migration predicted by current knowledge continue? Population projections show how the composition of the population changes if certain behaviours persist.

When preparing population projections, current trends are extended to the future. However, many variables need to be taken into account, such as the number of children and the age of mothers, mortality in different age groups, the age distribution of the migrating population and what changes take place over time. Also, the developments in countries that are demographically similar to Estonia and how scientists from international statistical organisations (UN, Eurostat) predict Estonia’s demographic future are taken into consideration. Even if there is a steady change, there are always alternatives, not to mention unexpected crises in Estonia or in the neighbouring countries that may affect trends.

In population projections, the population of each following year is calculated on the basis of birth rate, mortality and migration trends by sex and age.

The population projections show

  • how the population will change;
  • what the number of births and deaths will be in Estonia;
  • the impact of external migration;
  • the future age composition of the population, i.e. the percentage of children, young people, women in fertile age, working- and retirement-aged people.
Population projection 2080 1,179,667

Living longer, but health is worse

According to Statistics Estonia, in 2018, life expectancy at birth was 73.9 years for males and 82.4 years for females. Life expectancy has increased for both sexes, slightly more for males. Men are expected to live disability-free for 52.8 and women for 55.6 years. Just a year ago, disability-free life expectancy for males was two years longer and for females over three years longer.
Read more 4. September 2019